Cost-effectiveness of a post-splenectomy registry for prevention of sepsis in the asplenic

Background: Overwhelming, sometimes fatal infections represent a lifelong risk after surgical removal of the spleen, or in patients who develop hyposplenism as a consequence of illnesses. This risk may be reduced by all or a combination of vaccination, antibiotic prophylaxis and education. We aimed to determine if a registry approach to delivering these interventions would be cost effective using our own experience and published data.
Method: The decision model compared a cohort of 1,000 people covered by a registry to a cohort of 1,000 people with no registry. The impact of the registry was assessed in terms of achieved rates of vaccination, chemoprophylaxis and education, consequent outcomes of overwhelming post-splenectomy infection (OPSI) and mortality (years of life lived). The cost-effectiveness of the registry compared with no registry was estimated in terms of additional cost per case of OPSI avoided and as additional cost per life year gained.
Results: In the first two years, the additional cost of the registry was $152,611 per case of OPSI avoided or $205,931 per life year gained. After this initial registration period the costeffectiveness improves over time, such that over the cohort lifetime a post-splenectomy register is associated with an additional cost of $105,159 per case of OPSI avoided or $16,113 per life year gained.
Conclusion: A registry-based approach is likely to prove cost effective in terms of mortality and rates of OPSI avoided.

A multi-vector, multi-envelope HIV-1 vaccine

The St. Jude Children's Research Hospital (St. Jude) HIV-1 vaccine program is based on the observation that multiple, antigenically distinct HIV-1 envelope protein structures are capable of mediating HIV-1 infection. A cocktail vaccine comprising representatives of these diverse structures (immunotypes) is therefore considered necessary to elicit lymphocyte populations that prevent HIV-1 infection. This strategy is reminiscent of that used to design a currently licensed and successful 23-valent pneumococcus vaccine. Three recombinant vector systems are used for the delivery of envelope cocktails (DNA, vaccinia virus, and purified protein) and each of these has been tested individually in phase I safety trials. A fourth clinical trial, in which diverse envelopes and vectors are combined in a prime-boost vaccination regimen, has been FDA-approved and is expected to commence in 2007. This trial will continue to test the hypothesis that a multivector, multi-envelope vaccine can elicit diverse 8- and T-cell populations that can prevent HIV-1 infections in humans.

Antibiotic resistance in invasive Streptococcus pneumoniae isolates identified in Scotland between 1999 and 2007

Data from 4727 invasive isolates of Streptococcus pneumoniae submitted to the Scottish Haemophilus, Legionella, Meningococcus and Pneumococcus Reference Laboratory between 1999 and 2007 were analysed to establish susceptibility profiles to penicillin, erythromycin and cefotaxime. Pneumococcal resistance to penicillin over the study period remained low, with only 0.2 % (n=7/4727) of isolates falling into this category (MIC ≥2 mg l−1). These isolates have been sporadic, and have mainly represented serogroup 14 (ST9) and 9 (ST156). In comparison, the ‘intermediate sensitivity’ group (MIC 0.12–1 mg l−1) ranged between 2 and 6 % per year, the majority from serogroup 9 (ST156). Over the study period, we found that 12 % (n=585/4727) of isolates were erythromycin-resistant (MIC >0.5 mg l−1), with the majority (n=467; 80 %) of these isolates identified as serogroup 14 (ST9). Cephalosporin resistance (cefotaxime MIC >1 mg l−1) was found in only 0.06 % (n=2/3135) of isolates. Internationally recognized clones (Pneumococcal Molecular Epidemiology Network) accounted for 35 % (n=28/81) of the penicillin non-susceptible isolates and 75 % (n=248/330) of the macrolide-resistant isolates, with ST9 and ST306 predominating. Between 1999 and 2007 we found that 11.6 % (n=18/155) of the penicillin non-susceptible isolates and 4.8 % (n=28/585) of the macrolide-resistant isolates were from serogroups not covered by the 7-valent conjugate pneumococcal vaccine in use in the UK since 2006. Susceptibility to first-line antimicrobial agents for invasive pneumococcal disease in Scotland remained high over the period 1999–2007.

Global, regional, and national age-sex specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990-2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background: Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specific all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specific causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65·3 years (UI 65·0-65·6) in 1990, to 71·5 years (UI 71·0-71·9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47·5 million (UI 46·8-48·2) to 54·9 million (UI 53·6-56·3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute differences between countries decreased but relative differences increased.For women aged 25-39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20-49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative differences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10·7%, from 4·3 million deaths in 1990 to 4·8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specific mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.